CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-03T02:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30409/-1
CME Note: A faint CME with narrow brighter front with filamentary structures (likely the bulk) and a wider fainter but slower front (likely the shock). The source is the X1.6 class flare (N26E05) from AR 3663 peaking at 2024-05-03T02:22Z and an eruption with a faint narrow ejecta seen in AIA 193 directed mostly towards the NE and a faint dimming mostly NE of the active region and post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193. Arrival signature: gradual CME arrival signature (likely a flank impact/glancing blow) which on 2024-05-06 is followed by the onset of a high speed stream. There is no shock but a steady growth in magnetic field to 16nT on 2024-05-06, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components, with a prolonged bout of negative Bz (below 10 nT) on the evening of 2024-05-05. The ICME signature also includes an initial build up of ion density and temperature, followed by drops in both parameters.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T11:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-06T11:07Z
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/05/03 02:40Z Plane of Sky 1: 09:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 14:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction POS Difference: 4:40 POS Midpoint: 11:40Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 9:00 Numeric View/Impact Type: 0 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.94 Travel Time: ~8.94 * 9:00 = 80:27 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-06T11:07Z Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5 *** Estimated latest time of arrival changing the Impact Type from 2 to 0 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/05 19:07ZLead Time: -7.65 hour(s)
Difference: -23.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-05T19:09Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement